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The Impact of Credit Control and Interest Rate Regulation on the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of Long-run Effects
(with Michael K.Y. Fung and Lijing Zhu)
Journal of Comparative Economics , 28(2), 2000, 293-320
Abstract: After identifying the two major institutional features of the Chinese economy, i.e., the coexistence of state-owned enterprises and private firms and tight governmental control over the financial sector, we incorporate these features into an endogenous growth model to investigate the long-run impacts of credit control and interest rate policies on the macroeconomic performance of the transforming Chinese economy. We find that (i) raising the interest rate on government bonds reduces the inflation rate without tempering the output growth rate, (ii) reducing the bank loans available to the state-owned enterprises may lower both the inflation rate and the output growth rate, (iii) increasing the nominal interest rate on bank deposits will exert a stagflationary effect on the economy, i.e., increasing the inflation rate but reducing the output growth rate, and (iv) changing the nominal interest rate on bank loans will have little real effect.
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